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Today's sport illustrated magazine Article
Sports Picks - "The Due Factor"
Most sports bettors correctly focus on recent performance when making sports picks. Recent performances show not only who?s playing well or poorly, but also reveal team mindsets and chemistry. Such intangibles are very useful in making winning sports picks (or at least avoiding losing sports picks).
But how much emphasis should be put on how a team has played over its last 3 or 5 or 10 games? In this article, we examine what we call ?The Due Factor? - whether or not a team?s performance is ripe for a change because of a long series of similar performances and/or results.
If a team has lost 10 straight games, are they really ?due? to finally win one? As of this writing (May 1st), the baseball season is still very young, but a number of notable winning and losing streaks have occurred. Already this season, the Yankees have lost 7 straight games, causing owner George Steinbrenner to issue a terse threat disguised as a statement of hopeful support. The Giants, too, have had a streak of their own, an 8-game winner.
The Yanks finally turned it around at home against their great rival, the Red Sox, but was that victory any more likely because they had lost the seven previous games? Imagine if they had lost the previous 10 games or even 15. How about then? Clearly, they aren?t going to lose 130 straight games. They HAVE to win sometime, right?
The Giants 8-game winning streak came to an end as well. If they had won that 9th game, would it make winning the 10th harder? How about if they had won 20 straight? With each consecutive win, the odds of them winning the next game get smaller and smaller, correct?
The answer is a big fat NO.
Although recent performances are useful in evaluating potential sports picks, they are not predictive. The previous game will not tell you what will happen in the next game. It?s as simple as that.
Whether it?s called ?The Due Factor? or ?The Law of Averages? or ?Regression to The Mean?, this type of thinking is so pervasive among gamblers that mathematicians have their own name for it: The Gambler?s Fallacy.
Not only are mathematicians aware of it, you can bet sportsbooks and casinos are too. In fact, roulette tables emphasize the Gambler?s Fallacy when they show the last 10 or so results on a big board for all players and potential players to see. The casino is HOPING for a streak. If 19 reds have come up in a row, lots of people will pile money on black. It?s due, these people think. If they have some (but not enough) knowledge of math, they may incorrectly think that the odds of red coming up 20 times in a row is 1 in 3,091,874, but the odds are exactly the same as the first spin.
The same goes for flipping a coin. The Law of Averages says that 1000 flips of a coin will produce a near equal split between heads and tails. If, while flipping this coin 1000 times, you hit a streak of 100 heads in a row, the odds of the next flip being tails is 50%, just like every other flip. The important word in the phrase Law of Averages is ?Law? not ?Averages?.
If a team wins 20 games in a row, the odds of them winning the next game are not effected by this streak. Each game is an independent event and has odds of its own completely unrelated to the games which occurred in the past. Besides, why would you ever want to bet against a team that has won 20 in a row? Clearly, this team is kicking ass and taking names.
When it comes to sports betting and streaks, the wisest move is to have your sports picks go with the flow, not against it. Betting against a streak opens up unlimited losses because you never know how long the streak will continue. A streak can go on game after game after game, but the end of a streak can happen only once.
To learn more about how a Precision Plays account can help you succeed at sports betting, please visit http://www.PrecisionPlays.com |
sport illustrated magazine Items For Viewing
Ritter Sport Nugat Chocolate 100 G
Ritter Sport Nugat Chocolate 100 G
Customer Review: Ritter Sport Nugat : one of the best
I am a big chocolate lover, and must say German chocolate is generally the best, especially if you consider the price-quality ratio .. Ritter Sport's Nugat (not to be confused with Nougat) has a wonderful hazelnut-cacao (sort of Nutella-type) taste, melding on your tongue, and is not too sweet (I find US or UK chocolates really too sweet); it goes perfectly with black tea or coffee ..
New Balance Men's M992 Running Shoe
New Balance Men's M992 Running Shoe
This classic sneaker from New Balance is the perfect balance of old-school style and easy, athletic comfort. Made for runners and non-runners alike, it features a whole roster of technical features to give you a comfortable, stable, and long-lasting stride.
Customer Review: good shoes
I can't say that these shoes look very nice, but they are awesome in comfort. If you have flat feet or knee pain these are the way to go. I will get a new pair every 300 miles. Oh, also, they are too expensive, so only 4 stars...
Customer Review: Great service-love the shoes
I just puchased the New Balance 992's on Amazon. I had been using the former model 990 for many years. The puchase was smooth, the delivery as promised and most important- I love the shoes and will stick with this model for a long time. Good job Amazon (as usual).
Garmin nüvi 350 3.5-Inch Portable GPS Navigator
Garmin nüvi 350 3.5-Inch Portable GPS Navigator
What if one device could help you navigate anywhere in the U.S. and Canada, while offering travel tips, storing your favorite tunes and photos, providing translation assistance, and more? That device is here, and it's not much bigger than a deck of cards. The Garmin nüvi 350 is set to revolutionize what we expect from a GPS navigation device, or from any device for that matter.
Which nüvi is Best for You?: Click here to see a quick, simple comparison of features for all Garmin nuvi GPS navigators
 The nüvi 350 is a portable GPS navigator, traveler's reference, and digital entertainment system, all in one. View product demo (requires Flash). |
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 A simple touchscreen interface and voice guidance allow you to keep your eyes on the road. View larger. |
 Listen to an audio book or an MP3 while you're on the road. View larger. |
With a total weight of 5.1 ounces and slim measurements of 3.87 x 2.91 x 0.87 inches (WxHxD), the nüvi 350 is just right for the pocket or purse. A bright, 64,000-color display dominates the front of the device and a resolution of 320 x 240 pixels means that there's plenty of room for displaying map data and other elements of the device's interface. An SD memory card slot is provided for expansion software, such as a points of interest database, media files and electronic guides (see below). The flip-up antenna includes an MCX-type connector for connecting the unit to an external GPS antenna. Meanwhile, a powerful built-in speaker resides on the back of device. A built-in lithium ion battery will give you for to eight hours of battery life, depending on use. In addition to an AC charger, the unit also ships with a 12-volt power adapter for vehicle charging, as well as a windshield suction cup mount.
Fortunately, Garmin has made it easy to interface with the nüvi 350's 700 megabytes of onboard memory, thanks to "plug-and-play" USB mass storage support. Just plug the device into your computer's USB port and you've got instantaneous access to all the audio books, music, photos, supplemental maps and other data on the nüvi 350's internal and SD card memory.
Navigation
The nüvi 350 is first and foremost a personal GPS device. Wherever you go -- in your car or on foot-- the device offers extremely accurate position data, thanks to a high-sensitivity integrated GPS receiver by SiRF and WAAS-enabled, 12-satellite reception. Combined with detailed maps of the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico the nüvi 350 provides automatic routing, turn-by-turn voice directions, and touchscreen control-- making it easy to find your way anywhere. Plus, the unique "text-to-speech" feature calls out turns by street name, and you can choose from either 2D or 3D mapping perspectives when you're viewing your route on the display. Additionally, the nüvi 350 is compatible with Garmin's GTM 10 FM TMC traffic receiver*, which allows users to avoid traffic tie-ups by simply pushing a button that will calculate a new route.
As mentioned, the nüvi 350 comes packed with mapping data for North America, but you can can also load up your custom points of interest. Set up proximity alerts for school zones, safety cameras, and more using Garmin's free POI (points of interest) loader program (available from garmin.com).
Important note about map updates: Due to our high volume of sales, almost every Garmin portable GPS navigator sold by Amazon.com will come with the most recent map version. If you ever do need a map update, you can purchase one from Amazon.com at our Garmin Store.
 The device automatically calculates the fastest route and provides voice-prompted turn-by-turn directions along the way. |
Navigation is just part of the journey, and the nüvi 350 is one of the first devices to recognize that. The built-in "Travel Kit" offers an MP3 player, an audio book player from Audible.com, a jpeg-format picture viewer, a world travel clock with time zones, a currency converter, a measurement converter, and a calculator.
In addition to the included travel tools, additional software add-ons are available, such as the Garmin Language Guide, with data provided by Oxford University Press. This software suite contains a multilingual word bank, phrase bank, and five bilingual dictionaries. The multilingual word bank and phrase bank supports nine languages and dialects, including American English, British English, French, German, Italian, Brazilian Portuguese, European Portuguese, European Spanish, and Latin American Spanish. Now you can look up and translate more than 17,000 words or 20,000 phrases per language -- right in the palm of your hand. Through the unit's text-to-speech interface, users can get a spoken pronunciation of each entry in the word bank, along with gender and part of speech information.
Another useful add-on software package, the Garmin Travel Guide, is loaded with information provided by Marco Polo. These guides put in-depth travel information such as reviews and recommendations for restaurants, tourist attractions, and more at your fingertips. The software allows you to navigate to an address or search points of interest-- places like hotels, restaurants, shopping, and tourist attractions. The nüvi 350 automatically calculates the fastest route and provides voice-prompted turn-by-turn directions along the way. The unit also audibly announces the name of upcoming streets-- letting you keep your eyes on the road while navigating through busy traffic and tricky roadways. And if you stray off course, the nüvi 350 automatically calculates the quickest way to get back on track.
*Traffic services available only in select cities where RDS-TMC coverage exists. Requires the GTM 10 FM TMC traffic receiver and subscription fee to enable traffic capability.
What's in the Box
nüvi 350, Preloaded City Navigator NT for North America and Puerto Rico, Vehicle suction cup mount, AC charger, Vehicle power cable, Dashboard disc, USB cable, Carrying case, Quick reference guide
| Screen Size inches (w x h) | Included Maps | Text-to-Speech (Directions in Real Street Names) | Traffic | Bluetooth | Media | FM Transmitter (audio through car stereo system) | Multi- Point Routing | Battery life (hours) | |||
| Cont. U.S., Hawaii, and Puerto Rico | AK and Canada | Europe | |||||||||
| nüvi 200 | 2.8 x 2.1 |  | Photos | up to 5 | |||||||
| nüvi 200w | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | Photos | up to 5 | ||||||
| nüvi 250 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | Photos | up to 5 | ||||||
| nüvi 250w | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | Photos | up to 5 | ||||||
| nüvi 260 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | | Photos | up to 5 | |||||
| nüvi 260w | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | Photos | up to 5 | |||||
| nüvi 270 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | | Photos | up to 5 | |||||
| nüvi 350 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | | FM (with opt. receiver) | Photos, MP3s | up to 8 | ||||
| nüvi 360 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | | FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | up to 8 | |||
| nüvi 370 | 2.8 x 2.1 | | | | | FM (receiver included) | | Photos, MP3s | up to 8 | ||
| nüvi 650 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | FM (with opt. receiver) | Photos, MP3s | up to 7 | ||||
| nüvi 660 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | FM (receiver included) | | Photos, MP3s | | up to 7 | ||
| nüvi 670 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | | FM (receiver included) | | Photos, MP3s | | up to 7 | |
| nüvi 680 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | MSN (receiver included; 1-year free); FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | | up to 7 | ||
| nüvi 750 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | MSN-enhanced (with optional receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 5 | ||
| nüvi 760 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | MSN-enhanced (with optional receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 5 | |
| nüvi 770 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | | MSN-enhanced (with optional receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 5 |
| nüvi 780 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | MSN-enhanced (receiver inc.; 3 months free) receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 5 | ||
| nüvi 850 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | MSN-enhanced (with optional receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 4 | |||
| nüvi 880 | 3.81 x 2.25 | | | | MSN-enhanced (receiver inc.; 3 months free); FM (with opt. receiver) | | Photos, MP3s | | | up to 4 | |
| nüvi 5000 | 4.5 x 2.7 | | | | MSN-enhanced (with optional receiver); FM (with opt. receiver) | | | external battery only | |||
Customer Review: garmin is great
I bought the Garmin 350 through Amazon, saving around $100, when compared to Best Buy, Circuit City, and Target. The product was with free shipping which always makes shopping thru Amazon more affordable. Thanks Amazon for one of the most useful gadgets I've ever purchased. My husband and I take it from city to city and now can always find the stores, restaurants, and sights with such ease!!!
Customer Review: Who needs a good sense of direction!
Great product. I love how no matter which way you turn, it "recalculates" (in a British accent, if you so choose!) and gets you where you need to go. Doesn't know all the roads, but it will get you to and from your location. I didn't want a huge screen...smaller is better in technology, right? (unless you're my husband tv shopping)
Sticks onto windshield- and my windshield is quite a ways from the driver's seat, but you can still read the screen just fine, I think it's a good size.
R H Forschner 10.25-inch Curved Blade Bread Knife, Black Fibrox Handle
R H Forschner 10.25-inch Curved Blade Bread Knife, Black Fibrox Handle
The bread knife is handy for slicing bread, of course, but also for slicing through croissants, cakes, and soft-fleshed tough-skinned fruits and vegetables such as citrus and tomatoes. R. H. Forschner is a division of Swiss Army Brands, Inc, renowned for the Victorinox Swiss Army Knife. These knives are specially ground and tempered so that they can be resharpened over and over again, keeping a sharp edge throughout their lifetime. State of the art technology blended with old world craftsmanship produce cutting instruments of excellent quality, at reasonable prices. Forschner Victorinox Fibrox knives have earned high marks in a well-known cooking magazine which stringently tests kitchen products.
Customer Review: A Great Knife
I read reviews about the Forschner and wondered, do I really need another bread knife? I bought it and realized that, yes, I really did! Slices very thin and even. I love it and use it whenever I can. I also use this knife to score the tops of my artisan bread before baking. My son used it and now he wants one, too.
p.s. My other bread knives are history.
Customer Review: Tremendous value
This knife will cut through a crusty bread with very little effort. The handle is comfortable and light, but well balanced. I agree with other reviews that the 8" Forschner bread knife is a great alternative if you are looking for something a little smaller. Overall, the Forschner line offers the best blade for the price, hands down.
The 59 Minute Baseball Practice
The 59 Minute Baseball Practice
The 59 Minute Baseball Practice has been called the bible of instructional baseball practice videos. The video was produced by a very successful youth baseball coach. Coach Marty Schupak has coached youth baseball for 13 years and has developed drills and techniques that enable a coach or parent to run a youth baseball practice within an hour. Coach Schupak was recognized by the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) for registering his 200th victory in 1998.
Customer Review: 59 MINUTE BASEBALL PRACTICE
IT'S A GREAT VIDEO TO LEARN DIFFERENT PRACTICE DRILLS FOR EVRY AGE GROUP. FUNDAMENTALS ARE AN INTEGERAL PART OF THE GAME OF BASEBALL AND CANNOT BE TAUGHT ENOUGH THIS VIDEO SHOWS DIFFERENT DRILLS TO MAKE A PLAYER FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND.
Customer Review: Great drills
Great Drills. Made my practices fast-paced, instructional and FUN! The only thing the DVD needs (that I made for myself) is a quick printed reference chart of how to set up all the players and a brief description of each drill. Now I have a "cheat sheet" to look at to remind me of how all the great drills on the DVD go. rickrod
Black & Decker BB7B Simple Start 12-Volt Battery Booster
Black & Decker BB7B Simple Start 12-Volt Battery Booster
Being stranded by the side of the road with a drained car battery can cause anyone to panic, especially if you don't have jumper cables. But you can give your car battery a boost from inside the comfort of your car with Black & Decker's Simple Start Battery Booster Car Starter. The Simple Start puts you back on the road quickly--just plug, charge, and go. No need for jumper cables or waiting for help to arrive. Simply insert the Simple Start's DC adapter into any of the car's 12-volt DC or cigarette lighter outlets and wait several minutes. A boost indicator LED and audible beep lets you know when your battery is charged and ready to start.
 Instead of jumper cables, plug the Simple Start into your cigarette lighter and start your car in minutes. View larger. |
 Charges cell phones or laptop computers. |
 Small enough to fit in your glove box. |
With the Simple Start there is no more worrying about lifting the hood and connecting jumper cables to the wrong part of your car battery, creating sparks and potentially damaging your vehicle. Whether you're in the rain, on an empty street on a dark night, or alone in an unfamiliar place, you no longer need to track someone down to jump-start your car. With the Black & Decker BB7B within reach, you'll never have to get under the hood to restart your car.
Charges More than Your Battery
The Simple Start offers a powerful, built-in LED light for emergency use and a 12-volt DC port for charging cell phones or anything with a car charger outlet, including laptop computers.
Easy to Store
The compact design of the BB7B allows for storage inside most glove compartments, toolboxes, car trunks, or even under the seat.
Rechargeable
The Simple Start recharges easily from any household AC outlet or DC automobile cigarette-plug style outlet, so that it will be ready the next time you need it.
Warranty
Black & Decker offers a full 2-year warranty.
Customer Review: Absolute waste of $60
The Black and Decker "Simple" Start is the most expensive paperweight on the face of planet earth. It should be PERMANENTLY RECALLED by Black and Decker NOW.
THE PROBLEM:
It DOES NOT CHARGE, either from the cigarette lighter of a charged car, NOR from the provided 120V wall plug. Instead, it simply beeps at you, like a very nervous dying cricket.
Note that you can tell power IS going into the BD-SS (or BS for short) since the LED lamp does light up if triggered while "charging". But no juice ever goes to the unit's batteries.
It should come charged anyway, so that you could take it out of the box and put it immediately to good use on your vehicle's dead battery. It does not.
Customer Review: Don't get this
I should have trusted the bad reviews on this one. This didn't work. I tested it by draining my battery(left light on), and it failed to recharge the battery at all. I would have been upset if this happened for real. It just chirped and stopped. When I try to recharge the charger, it seems to never completely charge. After it chirps to let me know it is done, I can start it charging again and after awhile it chirps again, but I can get it charging again forever. The light on the charger does seem to work ok,and I was able to charge my cell phone using the charger. One reviewer said he kept returning the unit because it was defective. Maybe I got a defective unit, but it is almost completely useless. I needed a car battery charger not a cell phone charger. There are some great reviews for this and some bad reviews . Why does a company like black n decker not test their products better before selling them?
Wii
Wii
Customer Review: Overclocked Gamecube
Wii is nothing more than an overclocked gamecube. It uses the same GPU as a gamecube with some OC. The hardware power is very weak compare to xbox 360. Except a few popular Nintendo first party titles, its third party support are not as strong as Xbox 360 or PS3 either. Plus this thing can't even do HD, not even 720P. If you buy a Wii, the best thing you can do is play it on a regular TV, it looks very ugly on a HD TV sepcially if you have a Xbox 360 to compare with.
The controller is not that good either, fun for a bit but no lasting power.
Customer Review: Fab!
I'm as far as they come away from a video-game enthusiast, but my husband just turned 45 and LOVES them, so I knew what I had to do to make this the most memorable gift to date.
Wii did not disappoint! We LOVE this system and have averaged at least 4 hours of playtime EVERY day since it was purchased back in early February. I can't tell you what it's done for our social life or how much fun it is to compete against each other one-on-one... you'll just have to buy one and see for yourself. We have a 16 year old daughter with multiple disabilities and even SHE can join in the fun with some of the games like bowling.
I was one of those unfortunate souls who didn't fully appreciate what a game system can actually bring to family/personal relationships and failed to get one when they were first released, but I don't lament having paid twice the regular price for it in order to receive it in time for his birthday. It was WELL worth the difficulty of finding and procuring one; actually gave me quite a sense of accomplisment.
I purchased Resident Evil 4 for it as well as Wii Play and Wii Carnival for his system, in order to give him the well-rounded experience. He loves them all and is actually setting foot in Game-stop stores every week to peruse other titles!
He tells me this was the best birthday present ever (among those of the past which included: Flight time learning to fly a small plane, a high-quality metal detector and hour-long Swedish Massage sessions!) and I couldn't be happier.
Hasbro Electronic Hyper Slide
Hasbro Electronic Hyper Slide
Be quick, pick the right colored hyper disc, and flick it under the arch before time runs out. The Hyper Slide from Hasbro packs three fast-paced electronic table-top games into one compact unit. Recommended for ages eight and up, these fast-sliding games for one or two players are fun and exciting for kids and adults.
 The hyper discs can be conveniently stored in a compartment on the side of the arch. View larger. |
 Three fast-paced electronic table-top games in one stylish unit. View larger. |
With its sleek, arched design, Hyper Slide looks like a futuristic game. Resembling a hockey game for a table top, the object is to flip the pucks through the goal. However, in these games the goal can be scored from both sides of the arch, and there are four different-colored pucks, called hyper discs. The game's electronic unit calls out a color, and you must pick that color and sent it through the arc. It automatically detects whether you've passed the right disc or not. When not in operation, the hyper discs can be conveniently stored in a compartment on the side of the arch.
Three Games for Solo Play or Two-Person Play
The Hyper Slide offers a few variations of play for your enjoyment. Two lighted buttons on the top of the Hyper Slide make it easy to choose which of the three games you want to play.
While the objects of the games are simple, playing them can be a fun challenge. The first game, "Fast Pass," is all about speed. The game commands a color and you've got to pass it through the goal quickly before the buzzer blasts. With "Add One," you've got to remember the order of colors. You start with a color and add one to the sequence each time you complete a round. "Code Buster" gives you 90 seconds to decipher the secret series of colors.
Best of all, you can play all these games with a friend or by yourself. With both "Fast Pass" and "Add One," you can even play head-to-head with another player or team. For solo play, the rubber "hyper band" is attached under the arch, bouncing the discs back to your side.
Put to the Test
Playing on any smooth, nonmetal surface, you'll be surprised how much fun the Hyper Slide really is. An announcer's voice, high-energy music, and sound effects move these games along. With your head in the game, you'll soon block out all the noise and only hear the color to flick, slide, or shoot through the arch. Unfortunately, if the constant voice directions are not your thing, the game can't be played without these sounds, nor can the volume be adjusted. On the plus side, the Hyper Slide announces your score at the end of each competition and keeps track of the highest score for each game. This electronic system runs on three "AAA" batteries (sold separately). If the Hyper Slide goes unused for two minutes, this smartly designed toy "goes to sleep," saving battery life until the player buttons are pressed.
Pros
- 3 fast-paced games for 2-person and solo play
- Lighted buttons make it easy to switch through games
- Games remember high scores
- Electronic game shuts off on its own
- Game must be played with announcer and music going
- Volume can't be controlled
Hyper Slide electronic game, hyper band, and 4 hyper discs.
Customer Review: Lots of fun
This is a really fast-paced game, and the children (ages 8-12) have really enjoyed it. I have, too! They've only played it a few times since Christmas, so I can't speak to the product's durability, but it appears to be well constructed, and the puck holder is a godsend (if my kids can lose something, they will).
Customer Review: WOW! What fun!
Whether you are going solo or with 2, 3, 4 or more players, this one is totally fun and fast! I highly recommend this, it is so worth the price. The only drawback is someone getting way too intense on keeping it going - then laughing and starting over.
I appreciate the fact that all pieces are stored within the unit. The only thing I have to complain about at all is the fact that sometimes I simply can not hear what color is being called out. The game is not one of the annoying ones that are so loud you can't stand to turn it on - but you better listen good!
Totally fun and fast!
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